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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."