A mere eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
